2025.08.17 – COUP DYNAMICS IN BURKINA FASO

Objective of Learning: Understanding the institutional, historical, and structural dimensions of coup dynamics in Burkina Faso and the Sahel.

INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK
● The term coup derives from the French expression coup d’état and denotes the sudden seizure of political power by force.

● Burkina Faso is a landlocked country in West Africa with its capital in Ouagadougou.

● It borders Mali to the north and west, Niger to the east, and Benin, Togo, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire to the south. 🌍

● The country lies within the Sahel, a semi-arid region south of the Sahara that also includes Mali, Niger, Mauritania, and Chad.

● The leadership of Captain Ibrahim Traoré emerged after a coup in October 2022.

● Additional coup attempts occurred in September 2023, January 2024, and April 2025, when authorities claimed to have dismantled a significant plot linked to actors abroad. 📜

● Public rallies in Ouagadougou expressed support for the junta after these events, particularly among youth and panafricanist movements.

● Russia reinforced the regime through Africa Corps training, energy agreements in 2025, and digital propaganda that built a cult of personality around Traoré. ⚔️

● China filled the supply gap left by France and reduced Russian deliveries, providing 116 infantry carriers and 6 assault vehicles in 2024, and engaged in mining activities.

● The United States reduced its presence in the Sahel, withdrew bases, and entered into tensions with South Africa over alleged arms shipments to Russia on the vessel Lady R. 🚢

● South Africa maintained neutrality or alignment with Russia, condemned the coups in the Sahel, yet faced accusations from the United States of supporting Russian logistics.

● Burkina Faso and its Sahel allies accused Ukraine of supporting terrorism, while Ukraine disrupted Russian supply chains, including in South Africa. 🌐

AUTHORIAL PERSPECTIVE
● The authorship of the events lies primarily with the military junta led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré.

● The junta grounds its legitimacy in control of the armed forces rather than in electoral authority.

● The institution presents itself as a national authority facing internal dissent and external influence. 🛡️

● Official statements attribute coup attempts to dissident officers and networks based in neighboring states.

● Opposition groups and international observers describe the junta as authoritarian and repressive.

● Russian actors supported the junta through training, propaganda, and nuclear energy cooperation with Burkina Faso and Mali. 🔋

● Chinese deliveries of armored vehicles strengthened the operational capacity of the armed forces.

● The United States monitored the situation but reduced its influence after withdrawing drone bases from the Sahel.

● Diplomatic conflict between the United States and South Africa intensified after the Lady R incident. 🌍

● Ukraine’s presence in the African arena included operations against Russian logistics and accusations by Sahel regimes of subversion.

● Public mobilization in Burkina Faso reinforced the institutional continuity of the junta despite repeated coup attempts.

● The authorship of the broader regional dynamic reflects the interaction between internal military elites and external powers seeking influence in the Sahel. 📜

Published by Leonardo Tomás Cardillo

https://www.linkedin.com/in/leonardocardillo

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