The analysis examines the structure of extreme rainfall, convective dynamics, and institutional warning systems during early March 2025 in Bahía Blanca.
EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
● The National Meteorological Service (SMN) identifies a sequence of rainfall extremes between March 4 and March 8, 2025, with the peak on March 7 in Bahía Blanca.
● The atmospheric setting combines a surface low over Cuyo and the Northwest with a surface high in the South Atlantic.
● A high-level low advances from the Pacific and supports vertical motion, moisture accumulation, and thermal instability. 🌎
● A cold front enters from the northern Patagonia sector and triggers severe convection.
● Columns present precipitable water between 40 and 60 mm with convective available potential energy above 4000 J/kg.
● These parameters align with severe storms and intense rainfall. ⛈️
DYNAMICS AND TIMING
● Between 03:00 and 09:00 local time on March 7, convective cells concentrate over Bahía Blanca.
● GOES-16 infrared observations indicate organization and persistence of the convective system.
● Rainfall persists through the morning and decreases in the afternoon. 📉
● Recorded accumulation in Bahía Blanca reaches 312 mm between March 4 and March 8.
● A maximum of 290 mm falls in only 12 hours on March 7, equal to about 25 mm/h.
● The daily total of 210 mm between March 6 and March 7 surpasses the previous record of 150.9 mm from February 1975. 📊
REGIONAL PRECIPITATION AND ALERTS
● Coronel Suárez registers 204 mm with 118 mm between March 5 and March 6.
● Pigüé reaches 116 mm and Tres Arroyos reaches 119 mm.
● SMN issues successive alerts: yellow on March 5 and 6, orange on March 6 afternoon, and red on March 7 morning. 🚨
● The red level is confirmed after 07:00 on March 7 and downgraded later the same day.
● The SQPE-OBS system estimates 300 to 350 mm around Bahía Blanca during the peak interval.
● Sentinel-2 satellite data confirm increased surface water between February 9 and March 11. 🌿
INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK
● The National Meteorological Service (SMN) provides institutional responsibility for monitoring and warnings in Argentina.
● The term “precipitable water” designates the vertically integrated mass of water vapor in an atmospheric column; etymologically, it derives from Latin “praecipitare” meaning “to cause to fall” and Old English “wæter.”
● The term “convective available potential energy” or CAPE denotes the integrated buoyant energy of an air parcel; etymologically, “convective” comes from Latin “convehere” meaning “to carry together,” “available” from Latin “ad” plus “habere” meaning “to have toward,” “potential” from Latin “potentia” meaning “power,” and “energy” from Greek “energeia.” 🔬
● The adjective “buoyant” specifies the ability of a parcel to rise when less dense than its environment; etymologically, it comes from Old French “buoy” meaning “float” and Late Latin “boia” meaning “fetter or float.”
● The term “recurrence period” identifies the statistical interval between extreme events; etymologically, “recurrence” originates from Latin “recurrere” meaning “to run back,” and “period” from Greek “periodos.”
● The term “satellite” denotes an artificial body orbiting Earth used for observation; etymologically, it comes from Latin “satelles” meaning “attendant.” 📡
● The institutional alert system uses a color code: yellow for potential risk, orange for high risk, and red for extreme risk.
● The magnitude of 312 mm in Bahía Blanca and 204 mm in Coronel Suárez are interpreted within this framework of statistical thresholds. 📘
● The official record of 150.9 mm in February 1975 demonstrates the historical basis for extreme rainfall comparison.
● The use of GOES-16 and Sentinel-2 establishes the technological dimension of institutional observation. 🛰️
● The etymology of “alert” derives from Italian “all’erta,” meaning “on the lookout,” and frames the preventive role of SMN communications.
● The combined interpretation of atmospheric dynamics and alert protocols reflects the integration of physical science with institutional governance.
● The SMN framework underscores that warnings complement but do not substitute broader disaster management strategies. 🏛️
My Diary - Leonardo Cardillo 