Learning objective
The objective is to analyze the roles of NATO, the Group of Seven, and the Group of Twenty in the unfolding Russia–Ukraine crisis, alongside recent chronological developments involving the United States, Russia, Ukraine, and European partners.
CONCEPTUAL FOUNDATIONS
- The Russian Federation is a state actor with centralized authority and significant military capability. On Sunday, September 7, 2025, it carried out an aerial assault with more than 800 drones supported by missiles, striking Ukrainian cities including Kyiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv. The damage included a government building in Kyiv, symbolizing a shift in escalation. This illustrates how Russia employs hybrid aerial warfare combining unmanned and missile technology.
- Ukraine is a sovereign state defending itself through asymmetrical tactics. On Friday, September 12, 2025, it struck the Russian oil terminal in Primorsk with drones, causing fires and disrupting shipments. This reflects a strategy of attacking infrastructure that fuels adversary revenues. Ukraine’s actions highlight how smaller states adapt by extending the battlefield into economic and logistical domains.
- The United States is a global power and NATO leader. After Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace on Tuesday, September 9, 2025, Washington reaffirmed its commitment to defend every inch of NATO territory. On Wednesday, September 10, 2025, Poland shot down drones, marking the first direct use of force by a NATO state in the war context. The U.S. also pressed partners to impose tariffs on oil buyers from Russia, linking economics with security imperatives.
- The United Kingdom is a European state employing sanctions as a major policy tool. On Friday, September 12, 2025, it unveiled about seventy new sanctions targeting Russian revenues and suppliers. These measures align with allied strategies to reduce Russia’s financial base for military operations. The sanctions illustrate how economic warfare complements military dynamics.
- The Group of Seven (G7) is a forum of advanced economies created in the 1970s, currently including the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan. Canada joined in 1976, while countries such as the Netherlands and China were not included. The Netherlands, though economically advanced, was not one of the largest economies at the time, and China was not yet globally integrated. The G7 thus operates as a compact club of democratic, industrialized states.
- The Group of Twenty (G20) is a broader forum created in 1999 after the Asian financial crisis, including nineteen countries plus the European Union. Members range from advanced states such as the United States, Canada, and Japan to emerging powers like China, India, Brazil, and South Africa. The Netherlands is not a member, but participates indirectly through the EU and occasionally attends as a guest. This structure reflects the balance between representation of the largest economies and political manageability.
- The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a military alliance established in 1949. Its core principle is collective defense under Article 5, where an attack on one is treated as an attack on all. It now has thirty-one members across North America and Europe, integrating both military and political security functions. In the Russia–Ukraine conflict, NATO is not a direct combatant but has provided weapons, training, and intelligence to Ukraine, while reacting strongly to violations of member airspace.
APPLICATIONS AND CONTROVERSIES
- The aerial assault of Sunday, September 7, 2025 illustrates Russia’s strategy of saturation, combining drones and missiles to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. The destruction of civilian structures, including a government building, underscores the dual material and psychological objectives. Such attacks expose vulnerabilities in air defense and highlight the need for Ukraine to secure stronger protective systems. They also represent a new stage of escalation with both symbolic and practical consequences.
- The incursions into Poland on Tuesday, September 9, 2025, followed by drone shoot-downs on Wednesday, September 10, 2025, reveal the fragility of NATO’s borders in the face of modern conflict. Poland invoked consultations under Article 4, and the United States reinforced deterrence through public pledges of defense. While these actions prevent passivity, they also risk expanding the conflict into alliance territory. The controversy lies in whether deterrent force prevents escalation or accelerates it.
- The Ukrainian strike on Friday, September 12, 2025 against Primorsk demonstrates how asymmetrical retaliation inflicts economic and logistical damage on adversaries. By targeting an oil hub, Ukraine directly attacked revenue generation. Yet the risk of stronger retaliation remains, showing the delicate balance of escalation. These actions also draw international attention to the reach of Ukrainian military capabilities.
- The economic measures announced on Friday, September 12, 2025 integrate financial warfare with strategic goals. The United Kingdom’s seventy-item sanctions list constrains Russian revenues, while U.S. calls for tariffs on Chinese and Indian purchases of Russian oil reflect efforts to globalize pressure. The controversy is whether these measures reduce Russia’s capacity or simply redirect flows through alternative channels. They also test solidarity among allies with different economic interests.
- The exclusion of the Netherlands from both the G7 and the G20 highlights structural limits of membership. Although the Dutch economy is advanced and globally relevant in trade and finance, population size and GDP did not secure formal inclusion. Instead, participation occurs indirectly via the European Union and occasionally as a guest. This situation reflects the selective design of global forums rather than a lack of significance.
- The presence of China in the G20 but its absence from the G7 reveals contrasting logics of membership. The G7 emphasizes shared political and economic values among advanced democracies, whereas the G20 prioritizes representation of the largest economies. As a result, China participates in the G20 but not the G7, despite its global economic importance. This demonstrates how institutional design shapes the capacity of forums to address conflicts such as the Russia–Ukraine war.
- NATO’s role illustrates the delicate line between support and direct confrontation. While Ukraine is not a member, NATO’s provision of weapons and intelligence sustains its defense. At the same time, incidents like the drone incursion into Polish airspace show the risk of escalation into alliance territory. The invocation of Article 4 and the mission “Eastern Sentry” to reinforce the eastern flank highlight how NATO adapts to threats at its borders. This underscores NATO’s enduring relevance in collective security.
My Diary - Leonardo Cardillo 