Key Takeaways
The core idea
The article looks at two linked questions: the chance that life exists beyond Earth, and the chance that humans ever make contact with another civilisation. It also introduces a fictional alien society, the Aruen, to imagine how such beings might see humanity.
The main probabilities
Simple models suggest that life somewhere in the universe is almost certain. In the Milky Way, the chance of at least one other living planet can sit anywhere from about 10% to well over 99%, depending on how rare life really is. For direct contact with a technological civilisation, different examples give outcomes from around 6% to about 99% over very long periods, such as ten thousand years.
The time question
The probability that contact happens in the next few hours of a single day is, for all practical purposes, zero. Contact, if it ever occurs, is far more likely on scales of centuries or millennia than on the scale of a single afternoon.
The Aruen mirror
The imagined Aruen civilisation lives on a plausible alien world and looks at humans as clever but noisy creatures. From their distant point of view, humanity appears full of creativity and empathy, but also full of “internal chaos” in emotions, politics, and information.
Story & Details
A restless question
The question about life beyond Earth never really goes away. It returns in the middle of the night, on long walks, or when looking up at the sky on a clear evening. Is there anyone else out there, thinking, feeling, building, and wondering the same thing? By late 2025, this question meets a very different sky than it did a few decades ago. The sky still sounds silent, but there is much more data behind that silence.
Modern astronomy has revealed a universe that is far bigger and more crowded than early textbooks suggested. Space telescopes and large surveys show that the observable universe holds at least trillions of galaxies. Each galaxy carries hundreds of billions of stars, and many of those stars host planets. In December 2025, more than 6,000 exoplanets are already confirmed, and the number keeps rising. Many of these worlds are nothing like Earth, but some live in so-called habitable zones, where liquid water might be possible.
With numbers like these, the idea that Earth is the only place with life starts to feel strange. Even if life appears on only a tiny fraction of all suitable planets, the raw count of chances is enormous. This is where percentages help. They do not give a perfect answer, but they turn the vague feeling of “maybe” into clear examples.
From life existing to someone answering
First comes the simple question: is there life somewhere else? Think only of the Milky Way for a moment. In some scientific estimates, the galaxy may contain billions of planets in or near habitable zones. No one knows how often life truly begins, so it helps to imagine different “what if” cases.
In a very harsh case, suppose life appears on only one in one hundred billion suitable planets. Even then, a basic probability model gives about a 10% chance that the Milky Way holds at least one other living planet. If life appears on one in ten billion, the chance rises to about 63%. If life appears on one in one billion, the chance climbs above 99%. Across the whole observable universe, where the number of planets is vastly larger, the probability that life exists somewhere becomes so close to 100% that it is easier to call it “almost certain” than to push it down much lower.
The second, harder question asks not just about life, but about contact. For contact, simple microbes in an ocean under ice are not enough. There must be at least one other technological civilisation, able to send and receive signals across space. It must also exist in roughly the same cosmic era as humanity. If one civilisation ends millions of years before the other learns how to use radio, they never hear each other, no matter how advanced they are.
Here the famous Drake equation offers a useful frame. It is a short formula that multiplies several factors: how fast stars form, how many stars have planets, how many planets might support life, how often life appears, how often intelligence appears, how often that intelligence becomes technological, and how long such civilisations remain able to send detectable signals. Even though many of these numbers are uncertain, the equation makes one point very clear: the lifetime of civilisations matters as much as their number. A society that broadcasts for only a short time is like a torch flashed once in a huge dark valley. Only someone looking at exactly the right moment and in the right direction will notice.
Simple contact percentages
To see how this plays out, imagine two very simple models for the Milky Way. These are not precise predictions, but they respect what is known about stars and planets and then explore the unknown parts.
In a very pessimistic model, there are only about ten technological civilisations in the whole galaxy at the same time. Human civilisation continues as a technological society for ten thousand years into the future. Not every civilisation sends strong signals all the time, and some may stay quiet on purpose. Under these conditions, geometry and basic probability together give a chance of only about 6% that at least one clear, artificial signal is exchanged between humanity and another civilisation in that whole ten-thousand-year window.
In a more generous model, about one thousand technological civilisations share the Milky Way. The human technological phase is still ten thousand years. The galaxy is now much “busier.” Even if each civilisation spends only part of its time sending powerful signals, there are many more chances for those signals to cross. In this case, the probability of at least one successful contact rises to around 99%.
The important point is not that the real galaxy fits one of these examples exactly, but that the contact probability is highly sensitive to how many civilisations exist and how long they last. Change those inputs, and the odds swing from single digits to almost certain.
Why not “this afternoon”?
Against these long stretches of time, a single day in December 2025 is almost nothing. Even in the optimistic model, with a 99% chance of contact spread over ten thousand years, the probability that the crucial signal arrives and is recognised in the next few hours is tiny. When that long time frame is broken into days, a single day carries only a very small slice of the total chance, and a few hours hold only a small slice of that. For all practical purposes, the chance that contact happens “today, in the next hours” is so close to zero that it makes sense to treat it as zero.
This does not mean contact will never happen. It only means that if contact comes, it will almost certainly feel like a surprise on the scale of a human life, not like a scheduled meeting. It will be the result of long-term listening and patient work, not of waiting by a radio for an afternoon.
An imagined neighbour: the Aruen
Numbers can become dry, so it helps to put a face, even a fictional one, on the idea of “someone else.” Imagine a civilisation called the Aruen. The Aruen live on a rocky planet a little larger than Earth. Gravity at their surface is about 20% stronger than on Earth. Their world orbits a star slightly smaller and cooler than the Sun, a stable K-type star that shines for a very long time.
On this planet, a full spin takes 30 hours, not 24. A typical Aruen day has around 18 hours of light and 12 hours of darkness. Most Aruen sleep for 9 or 10 hours in a block, then stay awake for a long active period with a few soft pauses. To them, a human day might feel short and chopped.
The Aruen communicate with sound, but also through patterns of colour that flow across their skin. A group of Aruen in conversation looks like a ring of shifting lights, with colours carrying tone, emphasis, and subtle emotion. This dual channel pushes their brains toward parallel thinking. They tend to follow several lines of thought at once, and they are very good at spotting complex patterns.
Their strongest sense of self is not “I” but “we.” Where humans often celebrate lone heroes, the Aruen focus on teams. Big discoveries are always named for groups, not individuals. This does not mean they lack personality, only that their culture trains them to feel success and failure as shared experiences.
A report on human “internal chaos”
From their quiet, long-lived world, the Aruen turn their instruments toward Earth. They watch the planet’s thin radio shell and the growing storm of digital signals. Over time, they build a psychological report on Homo sapiens.
They see a species with high intelligence and extreme creativity. Humans write music, build cities, send probes to other planets, and argue about the deep structure of the universe. Humans also care for children, cry over stories, and sometimes show deep kindness to strangers.
At the same time, the Aruen notice something else. Human societies seem full of what they call “internal chaos.” Emotions swing quickly from joy to anger. Groups fight other groups, often for reasons that look small from the outside. Political systems shift, fail, and rebuild. Information networks carry careful science and wild rumours side by side, and many people struggle to tell them apart.
To Aruen eyes, humans look like brilliant teenagers with dangerous tools. There is huge potential, but there is also real risk. The report sketches three broad futures for humanity. In one, humans slowly learn to calm their internal chaos, build more stable systems, and become a long-lived, thoughtful civilisation. In another, humans stay in a semi-chaotic state, always on the edge of crisis. In the darkest path, the mix of power and conflict leads to collapse.
A tiny Dutch-language window
The Aruen also notice that humans love language. People on Earth use thousands of tongues and write in many scripts. As a small window into this variety, consider Dutch, a language spoken in the Netherlands and beyond. In Dutch, the simple word “dag” can mean both “hello” and “goodbye,” showing how one short sound can carry different meanings based on tone and context. For an outside observer, even this tiny detail hints at the playful, flexible way humans use words.
In the Aruen report, this love of language stands next to rockets, wars, kindness, and confusion. It is one more sign that humans are not simple. They are noisy and often lost, but also full of sparks that might someday light a steadier, wiser flame.
Conclusions
A soft landing
The sky in December 2025 still carries no confirmed signal from another civilisation. Yet the numbers behind that sky are loud. There are more than 6,000 known exoplanets, at least trillions of galaxies, and uncounted planets that might host life. Under many reasonable assumptions, the chance that life exists somewhere beyond Earth is very high.
Contact is another story. Simple examples show that long-term probabilities for a clear, two-way message can range from about 6% to about 99%, depending on how many civilisations share the galaxy and how long they stay active. On the scale of a single day, the chance is virtually zero. On the scale of millennia, the door stays open.
The imagined Aruen civilisation does not claim to be real. It acts as a mirror. Through that mirror, humanity looks both better and worse: more creative, more fragile, more surprising. If any real neighbours are watching, their view may be just as mixed. The numbers say that someone, somewhere, is likely to exist. Whether they will ever speak, and what they will think of the restless species on a small blue world, is a story that remains unwritten.
Selected References
[1] NASA Exoplanet Archive – Current count and details of confirmed exoplanets. https://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/
[2] NASA Science, “Exoplanets: Exoplanet Catalog” – Overview of confirmed exoplanets in a continuously updated catalog. https://science.nasa.gov/exoplanets/exoplanet-catalog/
[3] NASA, “Hubble Reveals Observable Universe Contains 10 Times More Galaxies Than Previously Thought” – Summary of research on the number of galaxies in the observable universe. https://science.nasa.gov/missions/hubble/hubble-reveals-observable-universe-contains-10-times-more-galaxies-than-previously-thought/
[4] ESA / Hubble, “Observable Universe Contains Ten Times More Galaxies Than Previously Thought” – Additional details on galaxy counts from deep surveys. https://sci.esa.int/web/hubble/-/58444-observable-universe-contains-ten-times-more-galaxies-than-previously-thought-heic1620
[5] SETI Institute, “Drake Equation” – Introduction to the classic formula for estimating the number of detectable civilisations in the Milky Way. https://www.seti.org/research/seti-101/drake-equation/
[6] NASA Science, “Are We Alone in the Universe? Revisiting the Drake Equation” – Discussion of how modern research updates thinking about life and civilisations. https://science.nasa.gov/universe/exoplanets/are-we-alone-in-the-universe-revisiting-the-drake-equation/
[7] NASA Science Live, “Modern-Day Explorers Search for Life Beyond Earth” – Public video on current searches for life and the tools used to find it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_pQgWfdq2Y
Appendix
Alien civilisation
A society that does not come from Earth, with its own biology, culture, and technology. The term in this article covers both simple ideas about “someone else out there” and the more detailed fictional example of the Aruen.
Aruen
A fictional technological species used in this article to make abstract ideas concrete. The Aruen live on a slightly larger, heavier planet than Earth, orbit a calm K-type star, and experience a 30-hour day. They think in strongly collective ways and communicate with both sound and colour.
Contact
A two-way exchange of clear, artificial signals between humans and another technological civilisation. For contact to count here, both sides must be able to tell that the message is not a natural noise but a deliberate act of communication.
Dutch mini-lesson
A short note about the Dutch language. In Dutch, the word “dag” can mean both “hello” and “goodbye.” The meaning depends on tone, situation, and context. This tiny example shows how flexible and playful human languages can be.
Exoplanet
A planet that orbits a star other than the Sun. Exoplanets can be big or small, hot or cold. Some lie in regions where liquid water could exist, making them interesting places to think about life beyond Earth.
Galaxy
A vast collection of stars, gas, dust, and dark matter held together by gravity. The Milky Way is the galaxy that holds the Sun, Earth, and many billions of other stars.
Internal chaos
A short phrase used in this article for the mix of emotional swings, social conflicts, political struggles, and noisy information that shape human life. The imagined Aruen report uses it to describe why humans look unstable as well as creative.
Milky Way
The barred spiral galaxy that is home to Earth. It contains hundreds of billions of stars and a huge number of planets, making it the main stage for the probability examples used in this article.
Observable universe
The part of the universe from which light has had time to reach Earth since the beginning of cosmic expansion. It forms a giant sphere that contains at least trillions of galaxies and a vast number of stars and planets.
Technological civilisation
A civilisation that has developed tools and systems such as radio telescopes, lasers, or space probes. These tools allow it to send and receive signals across interstellar distances and make it detectable, in principle, from other star systems.
My Diary - Leonardo Cardillo 